US Politics

Bernie Sanders is Set To Win All of The Upcoming 8 States, Expert Says

According to polling expert Nate Silver, Bernie Sanders is likely to win all of the upcoming 8 states in the race to become the Democratic nominee. Silver boasts a long record of accurate predictions which includes successfully calling the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, for example. As a result of that particular achievement, he was named one of The World’s 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009.

Currently working at polling organization FiveThirtyEight, Silver has done a remarkable job of predicting state by state who will win in both the Democratic and Republican fields during this election cycle. His credibility took a blow, however, following a win for the rising Democratic candidate, Bernie Sanders in the state of Michigan. Silver and his polling organization claimed that Sanders’ opponent – former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton – had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary, when in fact Bernie Sanders won the state by 2%.

After that upset, Silver went back  through the records and found that only one primary, the 1984 Democratic one in New Hampshire, was on the same scale as the historical Sanders win in Michigan. The whole polling game changed that day, proclaimed many experts in the period that followed the primary.Silver decided to create an entirely different model and formula for predicting the primaries, one which incorporated demographic factors much more.

Using his new method of predicting, Silver would have been able to predict the Michigan caucus far more accurately, as he explains, “Our demographic “retrodiction” for Michigan still has Clinton winning, but only barely — by 3 percentage points, compared with the actual 2-point win for Sanders. Especially under the Democrats’ proportional allocation method, that’s a pretty minor difference.” The difference is even more minor when you incorporate the fact that most polling companies, in the run-up to Michigan had Sanders losing to Clinton by almost 20%.

It is critical to the Sanders campaign that they finally begin to enter a period of sustained victories, if they are to clinch the nomination. Now, however, following a change in Silver’s prediction system, it seems as though Sanders is on track to achieve just that. While Clinton tends to do better in more conservative regions, such as the Deep South, there aren’t many of such places left to vote. The next 8 states to engage in the Democratic nominating process are Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Silver feels Sanders has a shot at winning all of them.

In Idaho, Nate Silver says that Bernie Sanders has a 75% chance of winning. Similarly, in Utah he has an even greater chance of winning at 82%, in Alaska Sanders is almost certain to win with a 91% chance. Hawaii and Washington are the next two states after that, and according to Silver’s mathematical analysis – Bernie has a 81% and 85% chances of winning. Finally, in Wisconsin, Bernie has a 61% chance of winning and in Wyoming he has an 81% chance of winning.

The only state that I have omitted so far is Arizona, which is on the same date as the Idaho and Utah primaries. In Arizona, according to Nate Silver’s prediction – Bernie Sanders has a 40% chance of winning. These predictions however, were made a couple of weeks ago, before Sanders held multiple rallies in the state, before he invested over 1.5 million dollars in ads and before polls emerged showing Sanders rapidly closing the gap. The incorporation of all these influences means that Sanders has a far better chance of winning Arizona now than he did when Silver’s predictions were made.

Therefore – with the exception of perhaps Arizona – Bernie Sanders looks set to enter a period of successive wins in very important states. Last week, the Sanders campaign claimed that Clinton’s best days are now behind us and according to polling experts such as Nate Silver it seems as though they were right. Sanders fans will hope that winning all of the upcoming 8 states would provide Bernie with sufficient momentum to enable him to win bigger states in the future such as California and New York.

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Table taken from FiveThirtyEight :

DATE STATE CLINTON SANDERS SANDERS WIN PROB.
3/15 Fla. 67% 32% 4%
Ill. 54 45 34
Mo. 54 45 33
N.C. 68 31 4
Ohio 51 48 42
3/22 Ariz. 52 47 40
Idaho 42 57 75
Utah 40 59 82
3/26 Alaska 36 63 91
Hawaii 41 58 81
Wash. 39 60 85
4/5 Wis. 47 52 61

 

93 Comments

  1. I desperately need to believe your predictions but I don’t see how it’s possible considering Clinton’s last sweep.

    • Stephanie Parks

      Demographics. South = Conservative; Hillary, Conservative Democrat. West and the Coasts = Liberal and young people…Bernie = progressive with tremendous appeal to young people, and a lot more delegates than in the South. Believe and encourage!

      • Ultimo Patriarch

        California mixed population therefore Bernie loses. Only whitey white states vote for Bernie and his Bros.

        • Steve 4 Bernie

          Calling Bernie’s supporters “bros” is an attempt to minimize the impact he’s having all across America. Look at pictures of any Sanders rally – take, for example, the one in Sacramento last night where 21,000 people got in and another 10,000 listened outside – and the lie becomes obvious: Bernie appeals equally to men and women of all races and ethnicities.

          http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-sanders-sacramento-california/

          • I’m a Bernie supporter and find it dismissive to be considered a “bro”. I’m a disabled senior and a woman. and I am not one of the “typical” supporters as far as the Hillbots are concerned.

    • Larry harper

      There is no
      southern states involved, therefor a more educated voting public….advantage Sanders

    • Angela Rodriguez

      Obama didn’t see it, either, in 2008. 😉

    • Rita, the Sanders campaign predicted that Clinton’s lead would max out on March 15th, and that from that point on they would work to diminish that lead, and finally overtake her on June 7th. The ability to do so relies largely on continued support though this period when Bernie is the furthest behind he will ever be.

    • She did not “sweep”. It’s all about delegates. Don’t give up on Bernie. He hasn’t given up on you.

    • Daniel McCoy

      Clinton is out of southern states where the Clintons have a huge following..that is over.

    • curtis williams

      Because that sweep is over.

    • Last sweeps dont matter.

    • Katherine Harris

      You’d better hope it’s possible because if that “woman” wins, we’ll have a Republican president. I will not vote for her and majority of Sanders’ supporters will not vote for her, either.

      • Martha Robins

        Well, at least you are self-aware, and understand that you and your fellow non-voting Berners will be responsible for a Republican presidency. Idiot.

        And are you suggesting that Hillary is not a woman? What is the matter with you? Maybe it’s just not understanding how punctuation works.

        Because Hillary supporters are, in fact, grown-ups, we will vte fro Bernie should he be the eventual nominee. Y’all should consider growing up.

        • Kjell Beilman

          Well, I don’t think it comes down to Bernie supporters going to Hillary, hopefully Bernie still wins, but rather it is her lack of enthusiasm and her past I’m worried about. She has done too many back room deals, takes money from too many shady people, and is in bed way too much with corporate America and not working class America. It won’t have anything to do with Bernie supporters not voting for her, I will if she wins begrudgingly, but she will be torn asunder by the republican nominee. IMHO, she’ll lose because she’s betrayed many core democratic principles for the sake of playing the political game and jockeying for power. She wants power not to help people.

          • I agree with your comment completely. I believe that Bernie will win the nomination, but if Hillary does, then we all need to vote for Hillary no matter how bad a tasteit leaves in our mouths. As the nuns in my school used to say, “put your thinking cap on”. To not vote for Hillary is a vote for Trump. We also need to focus in on voting out any Republicans running for Congress on the ticket. The only hope we have of turning this country around is to get rid of as many Republicans as we can.

        • Barbara Claussen

          I couldn’t agree more! I’m behind Bernie all the way, but if he doesn’t win the nomination, I know I must vote for Hillary. Otherwise, it will be a Republican president (G-d forbid) in 2017. And that would be a disaster!

        • Please, Please don’t forget about down ballet races. This is where we cover ground if Trump wins. I’m also Bernie or Bust so you can thank me as well. I do believe that the republicans in Congress wont work with him and if we can get progressives in their place instead EVEN better.

          Sometimes change demands that you let all the cards fall and then rebuild it!

        • Hillary supporters might be grown-ups, whereas, I suppose, the implication is that Bernie supporters are immature. But Hillary supporters are also really really good at ignoring facts. And the simple fact is that the America is not going to vote for the most unpopular and least trusted woman in the country. You may grind your teeth, you may talk about how idiotic and unfair it all is, but this is the reality, whether you like it or not. About half of Bernie supporters are Independents. They are not beholden to your ideals. Try to understand that. It doesn’t mean that they are idiots, it doesn’t mean that they are stupid.

          On the other hand, if you have changed your mind and think that the polls that show her leading Trump by a percentage point or two are an indication that she will win the general election, well, then Bernie beats Mr Trump by 10-20 points. But let’s take the risk and run her anyway, ehh, just to spite Bernie’s immature supporters. Because that’s more important.

      • Nancy Kennedy

        That is just not true, numerous polls have said the majority would vote for the Nominee..
        I don’t feel need to decimate Clinton’s character (the Republicans and their ilk have spent millions doing it so you don’t have to) in order to vote for Bernie…

      • write in Bernie! 🙂

      • Seth Morris

        And President Trump thanks you for your support.

      • Jack Sanders

        But a quarter of Republicans say they would !

    • Kyle Griffin

      Her last sweep was mainly in the deep south, where Sanders knew he’d lose out. Basically, Clinton is winning states that will vote conservative in the election. Sanders is projected to win in states that vote Democrat in elections. He has a really good shot here.

    • Charles Russell

      Believe and to take note she won’t get one electoral vote in November in those states in the south she won

    • It’s (very) possible for several reasons, so be happy — and vote! First, the voter turnout so far has been abysmal — 11% on average for the Democratic primaries. Where the turnout exceeded that, Sanders won. The Southern states like NC have horrid voter suppression laws that really suppress the young vote — things like students not being allowed to vote at school despite their family home being hundreds of miles away. Things like not letting divorced women vote because their name doesn’t match on their birth certificate and their drivers license. It’s not as bad in the west, so there is a good chance of a much higher turnout among the people who vote 4-1 in Bernie’s favor. There is also the fact that as more people hear his stump speech, his contributions increase, helping the coverage increase. It would have been nice if he could have started 6 months earlier, but the rate of improvement is amazing — 3% in the polls when he started, and now tying in places like Illinois, winning in Michigan, Oklahoma (!), Nebraska (!). Short of the corporate media totally denying him airtime, he’s pointed in the right direction.

    • Well, just look at those predictions — Sanders beat all but Ohio, and most by a fair bit (he did underperform in Ohio).

      Prediction above has him getting the following percentages:

      FL – 32
      ILL – 45
      MO – 45
      NC – 31
      OH – 48

      What he ACTUALLY got, though, was:

      FL – 33.3
      IL – 48.7
      MO – 49.4 (basically a tie ,as Clinton got 49.6)
      NC – 40.8 (MUCH better than predicted)
      OH – 42.7

      so….take heart. 🙂

    • you need to understand that the DNC rearranged the voting for Clinton in the 2008 election cycle because they wanted her to have all favorable states vote first. the only thing that stopped her was Obama’s rise in April to pass her after from nowhere. Sanders is set to do the same. all the states that she’s won are Red states or her neighborhood. the states coming up are very Progressive and don’t vote for her Centrist ideas.

    • Trevor Bell

      That sweep was expected, it did not come as a shock/surprise. Bernie was well aware he was going to get creamed in the deep south caucuses. If he wins California it’ll be big though.

    • Look at the polls honey–in the March 22nd states, Hillary was expected to sweep by incredibly large margins. She did indeed but by closer margins, thankfully. On RealClearPolitics, Bernie’s leading Hillary in all the above mentioned states excluding Arizona. Judging by the sizes of his crowds, he will win those 6 states, Washington, Wisconsin, Idaho, Utah, Hawaii, and Alaska, by a landslide.

    • Dear Rita, shit up. Feel the bern.

    • Joe Schmoe

      Less black people voting. Uneducated blacks vote for whoever the Democratic machine tells them to.

    • Rita you are right to be cautious — CALIFORNIA, where I live and volunteer, is very likely to go CLINTON without a TON of daily hours, all hands on deck, from ALL supporters across the country.

      It’s sad because Bernie has made it clear in recent campaign stops that it’s the most important state period, but because everyone else has already voted, we have a real volunteer deficit, not enough people phonebanking, etc. Not enough money coming in for advertisements which are key in this state.

      It could ALL TURN AROUND TODAY, TONIGHT, TOMORROW, but we need another army of folks engaged starting early this weekend and going through June 7. Also the H forces are waking up so we have to counter them.

      The New Yorker is the only reliable source for polling data, with The Economist a close second. Forget Five Thirty Eight, CNN, MSNBC, etc — most of them are Clinton-leaning and want us to be complacent going into California.

      ALL HANDS ON DECK if we want to have a chance in CA and thus at the convention.

      xxx
      t

    • Clinton hasn’t had a “last sweep.” She barely squeaked out that win in Kentucky and Sanders won Oregon handily. Get accurate info so you are drawing valid conclusions.

  2. Barbara Brock

    Very interested in your predictions of campaign going forward. A strong supporter of Bernie.

  3. Terrell Whited

    I’m at a rally for Bernie in Utah right now and it’s packed wall to wall. We’ll make it happen!

  4. Rita, I’ve been following Nate Silver’s “Who’s On Track for the Nomination” thread (you can check it out here in the future if you haven’t already been:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

    I was super depressed about the last round of primaries until I check out the delegate tracker and even with the losses (particularly Ohio which was extremely disappointing) we’re actually closer to being “on track” than we were before Super Tuesday II or whatever ridiculous name they call it 🙂 Don’t know if that makes you feel better too, but I hope it helps! As long as we start outperforming in the upcoming primaries, this thing isn’t over yet and if Hillary’s recent campaign spending is any indication, even the Secretary knows it 🙂

  5. Wow! Senator Sanders is the true leader and public servant America must have to lead this country forward! Voters please compare Bernie’s record to the other candidates and note his qualities in leadership skills. Bernie is honest, humble, empathetic, compassionate, energetic, authentic, intelligent, experienced, and wise! He is passionate about building the middle class and preparing the younger generation for the sake of the future of this country! Check out Bernie on you tube and all his past experience. Vote smart! Vote Bernie! Gather all your friends up and make sure you all have checked the voting laws and deadlines to register in your state! The deadline is 3/22/16 for Arizona and other states! Take lots of water and snacks and if necessary dress warm for you may be waiting in long lines. The polls close promptly so do not leave your place in line. By law, if you are in line, you have the right to vote!

  6. Angela Rodriguez

    One more thing!! To those who may not be familiar with these just yet, PLEASE, help us keep this momentum going as you check out bernkit.com, berniefriendfinder.com, & ridewithbernie.com. You will find tools/info on phonebanking, facebanking, texting for Bernie, etc…just find the activity that best fits you and Bern with it!!! I promise you it will be the easiest thing you will ever do and always at your own convenience, too! Also, feel free to check out the Berned in Unity! group on FB! All are welcome! The more we can spread the word for the greater good, the better…because, WE ARE THE MEDIA!

    • Lynne Weixel

      Thanks for the info! Thanks for the effort! I’m so exited for the Bernie revolution – and whatever happens, this needs to go on and on!

  7. friend of hrc

    Even a loss Clinton receives pledged delegates… Bernie needs 65% of all delegates including NY and California. Clinton needs 35 % and she can lose the next 8 and still reach the nomination… on pledged delegates

  8. BERNIE SANDERS 2016

  9. Allen and Phyllis Dexter

    Bernie is the only hope for getting America back on track. We’re in Arizona and already have cast our ballots for him by mail.

  10. John M.Medeiros

    We need THESE states badly!Hope the fraud that’s been happening all over this great country doesn’t shift the wins back in her column!!!!!

  11. thank you to all those working and supporting this “once in a lifetime” opportunity for a President Bernie Sanders! Bernie or Bust!

  12. His odds have dropped to 30/1. If he wins 7 out of the next 8 then this will drop substantially. Worth backing

  13. A new poll by CBS news showed both Hillary and Bernie beating Trump. But Bernie’s margin was much larger. Can’t put my hands on the numbers right now, but saw it on the news tonight.

  14. Jonathan Nack

    Where is the article by Nate Silver, and where is the chart, which the article says is from fivethirtyeight.com? I can’t find them. Could someone please post links to them.

  15. Laurie Mitchell

    Great article, thanks for the new perspective and that’s interesting about how Nate Silver adjusted his methods following Michigan. I can’t wait to watch his predictions come true, starting tomorrow!!!

  16. “While Clinton tends to do better in more conservative regions, such as the Deep South, there aren’t many of such places left to vote.” She has won a lot of states that aren’t in the Deep South, including 5 key swing states: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, NC, Nevada (Florida is half Deep South, half not, so I don’t include it), as well as Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, Iowa (granted those were all close, but she won them and they split the delegates).

  17. Terrence McNulty

    But it will only happen if every supporter of Bernie Sanders goes and votes. Ignore polls, ignore projections, ignore the news, and just vote. Every delegate counts. You count.

  18. Fantastic news! Though, I will hold off my optimism until results on primary day. After the Michigan upset, I was nearly destroyed last week when I held such high expectations. I still nonetheless never gave up support or downed my efforts. However, I do believe it to be true as there are nearly no more Clinton heavyweight states. I will say to other Bernie supporters that just watching polls and praying that he will win just won’t do. Please make an effort to volunteer by canvassing and voter registration if your state has not yet voted or phonebanking if your state has. I will continue to push for Bernie until the very end. He has worked for decades for us and that is the least we can do!

  19. I’m not sure….I mean, does he figure in Hilary stealing votes and offer a graph of vote loss if Bill stops by and for how long?

  20. Too bad 538 actually only has predictions for UT (Clinton), AZ (Clinton), and WI (Sanders). There is no polling data for the other 5 states.

  21. Ian Roberts

    Post a link to the article on Nate Silver’s site. Five Thirty Eight doesn’t have a big article with these expansive Sanders predictions. I want to believe this, but where’s your source?

  22. Daddy love

    It’s not that Bernie has a 75% chance of winning the next 8, but that he has to win the next 8 by something like 70%-30% to have a shot at making up his 300+ deficit among pledged delegates (this excludes the superdelegates, berniebots). I don’t see it happening, but who knows?

  23. Courtisecular

    It’s called logic. One needs to ask themselves if the southern states will be effective for a democrat during the General.

  24. Kate Jensen

    He has a better chance of winning if the Clinton doesn’t cheat at the polling place. Votes disappearing, husband breaking the law and campaigning. etc!

  25. Deborah Ellis

    This is such encouraging news, and I really needed it. Thank you! This is the first polling analysis I have read for the upcoming states. I am gonna hold on to these predictions for as long as possible, and hope that they are accurate!!

  26. Stanley Sokolow

    Bernie doesn’t only need to win, he needs to win by an average margin of more than 15% to catch up to Hillary Clinton’s lead in pledged delegates. An outcome of 57 Sanders to 42 Clinton would maintain her lead. Anything better than that lets him cut her lead ending in a victory by the end of the remaining primaries.

  27. Amy Zawistowski

    We are supporters, activists and voters. So much more than fans.

  28. Richard Sitongia

    I did my best in AZ we gotta come thru tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!

  29. Brendan Doyle

    Well, that would be great, but there’s no mention whatsoever of this story on the FiveThirtyEight.com site that I can find, so I’m pretty skeptical that Nate Silver actually said this. I think somebody jumped the gun here. I would welcome any evidence to the contrary, however!

  30. Elbert Taylor

    Could you post a URL to the table from FiveThirtyEight? I’ve been looking all over that website and I can’t find that chart.

  31. Elbert Taylor

    The direct link to the chart from FiveThirtyEight should be included – pro-Clinton folks are claiming the chart is bogus because it’s not easy to find.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-bernie-sanders-pull-off-an-upset-in-ohio/

  32. Rod Gordon

    Let’s all hope these predictions are correct. 91% chance of winning Alaska!! Sounds great to me.

  33. Defintely accept these predictions. The southern states were pretty much going to be Clinton’s. The Mountain States and the Western States are going to be Bernie’s with the exception of Nevada. Now, let’s watch Bernie win. He’s the only viable candidate!!

  34. tim mc laughlin

    Arizonan for bernie i have hoped for the truthful statesman all my life Sanders is the real thing tomarow i will do everything i can after all it’s about the rest of the tomarows .

  35. Scott Wilson

    Can’t understand Americans the only candidate for President with REAL experience not just domestically but Internationally is Hilary Clinton.
    If you went to any other profession for help u would use those who actually do have experience.
    But instead u have a billionaire reality show bully boy and a lefty that want be able to deliver on any promise at the expense of one of the most experienced non presidential candidates Hilary Clinton
    I would love being voting for the first female president of the USA but alas I live in Australia

    • SOS was a consolation prize for supporting Obama. Clinton racked up the miles and embraced overwhelmingly hawkish efforts for U.S./foreign relations. Not sure exactly what accomplishments you can point to in that office, unless you support military intervention as a primary foreign policy strategy. I do not. Bernie does not. Check the news of bombings in Brussels–just the latest horror in the endless violence spawned by destabilization in the Middle East. If your goal is a peaceful planet, even if you can’t imagine more than progress toward that ideal, you have ONE choice in this election. One. Give it some thought.

  36. GARY WILLIAMS

    Bernie will be elected as long as the media doesn’t continue to lie about it.

  37. Kristin Lee

    This morning, the bombings in Belgium just further confirm that we need a new foreign policy in the Middle East. Libya’s vacuum gave rise to ISIS and our endless interventionism and regime change over there is threatening our own borders and making the global community less safe. Enough extremist right neocon policy that Hillary bows to so easily. Bernie has the insight and sound judgment to forge strong and lasting international relations. No more perpetual Wall St. wars for perpetual profit!

  38. All 8 states? No. Your title is misleading. Arizona is still projected by Nate Silver for Clinton, as of 3/22 AM. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/arizona-democratic/

    And, though they may be “wins”, what matters are delegate counts. With the proportional nature of these states, and the relative small number of total delegates awarded in Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Hawaii & Alaska, HRC will still pick up delegates, and will still maintain her lead going into the New York Primary, where she is projected to win handily. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-york-democratic/

    Winning small states will not affect the final outcome.

  39. As a Bernie supporter, it almost seems that you are trying to set us up for disappointment. Everyone knows he isn’t expected to win all of these, especially AZ, so why try to give us false hope? Sounds fishy to me.

  40. It’s not over until the West Coast votes. We will send Sanders over the threshold, mark my words. He’s going to get a large percentage of California.

  41. Are these the same “Experts” that said Hillary would win Michigan. They no nothing more than anyone, just grasping at straws

  42. andrew lyons

    Our wars are fought by the poorer Americans. They are paid
    relatively suvsrantial sums to enlist and ” reup. ” The weathly
    like Clinton,Trump, etc rarely go abroad to fight for their country.
    They like war because its good for business.
    KEEP our men safe at home, VOTE for the pacifist, Bernie Sanders

  43. Dennis Samuel

    The number of Bernie supporters in this comment section itself shows who’s going to the White House. #PresidentBernieSander #Bernie2016

  44. Norma Kramer

    You left out California. Why ? California primary is June 7th and has a huge number of delegates. In any case, the Democratic message must be VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO if Dems are to retain the White House !! Please emphasize this, a divided party is a recipe for disaster !

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